Lebanon Bomb

Car bomb kills former Lebanese Prime Minister. Ignoble fate...my oh my. Where do I possibly begin about Rafik Hariri and the situation that could arise?


I wasn't going to get into it all, but here's my armchair expert-analysis:

First, let's not kid ourselves. This is serious. And before I get to that, apparently a friend of a good friend of ours was injured very badly and is in critical condition in the hospital right now. I hope he gets better. update: It turns out that this friend of our close friend is Dr. Basil Fleyhan who was Hariri's minister of finance. They went to high school together. Here's a website you may visit to pay your gratitude to the Fleyhan family and their loved ones. I just found this out. I had no idea until now. My family's thoughts go out to him in this very difficult time. We hope and pray for him.

This is the situation: Everybody knows Rafik Hariri is both a Sunnah and basically works for the Saudis buying up tracts upon tracts of land and essentially at war with his Christian counter-part, President Emile Lahoud. This basically means Hariri works for Americans (in a sense). Now, one of the possible situations and what people around me are talking about at the present time is that when all is said and done, because of the mess caused by this bombing the US will now tell Syria to keep Lebanon in order.

Let me explain: The current American administration has bigger fish to fry now. We expect a big Christian opponent of Hariri's to be hit next. And this could spark another cycle of violence in Lebanon. Let me be frank by saying this was an extremely sophisticated attack. And it was not a mere coincidence, personal vendetta, or the fact that this guy was basically the most powerful man in Lebanon. Hariri travels in convoy with armored vehicles everywhere. Without a doubt, then, this is a carefully orchestrated plot to change things in Lebanon.

I sense, at the moment, the US is frightened at the fact they didn't get what they wanted in the Iraqi elections. The prospect of Hizbollah allying with a new axis of power, Baghdad-Tehran, is a bit too much. Imagine a Baghdad-Tehran-Damascus axis. How would America handle this? The US wants to attack a secular regime in Syria and a theocratic regime in Iran at the same time. How is that going to work?

And it could also be that Syria is forcing America's hand. Remember, Syria is controlled by the secular Baath party and President al'Assad does not want Islamic law or any sort of clerical rule in Syria. Meaning, Hariri is the opposition to the Lebanese government and Syria. So, they wanted to take him out before he could get back into power next time. (There's also some change in election law being discussed in Lebanon. Currently, a Maronite Christian must be president now. And a Sunni Muslim must be prime minister. I'll try to get more on the proposed changes at some point.)

Also, I have just heard Paris wants an international investigation in the incident because they don't trust either the Lebanese government or the Syrians. This story is developing, but it's a sign that the Lebanese government is not to be trusted for the most obvious reasons. Funny how logic works. We'll see what happens with it.

Back to the micro: Anyhow, we know Lahoud's in Syria's pocket. And we know that Hariri was a sworn enemy of Lahoud. And we know that these two were destroying Lebanon. It was almost as if they were carrying out some sick ego-game by battling one another through economic means...leaving the Lebanese populace to the wolves. And...(from comments)...Nobody wants to go back to Lebanon. It was one of the most vicious wars to ever take place. But Lebanon could be the reasoning to invade Syria by the US. Honestly, right now, I'm afraid of Lebanon burning to the ground again over external politics.

We have no idea what we could be on the cusp of. The power of the Shia is already being felt across the region. And this will only lead to more blood-shed and possible war. These are extremely disheartening times.

Could this be the return of Michel Aoun? Or will Syria be redeploying forces into Beirut at the muffled behest of America?

More later perhaps...


update redux: I just read what JC--Juan Cole--had to say about the bombing today after frantically speaking about it with friends and family for hours. And he mentions it could be related to the fact he is worth billions and because he's mafia-sketchy. In other words, something could have happpened that we have no knowledge of at all. Absolutely. This is a possibility. But, personally, I doubt it.

And it's also true that Hariri "worked" for the Syrians too. I didn't mention that before. But, yea...the reason why I said he works for America now is because he essentially rejected the way things were going in the Lebanese government last year and aligned himself more clearly with American interests. It was the case of the town wasn't big enoug for both Lahoud and Hariri. One of them had to go. And it was Hariri that resigned, yet maintained his powerful stature in Lebanon. Meanwhile Lahoud remained the president and "Syria's good boy".

I must state that my opinion as far as Lebanon goes is biased, but I've tried to remain as unbiased as possible when explaining it to you. I'm serious when I say this. It's also complicated beyond belief being from the family I'm from...so, excuse me while I try and decipher things for you. I have trouble deciphering them myself. But I know what my gut tells me. And that's all I've included here.

So, Hariri was one corrupt leader...yet Lahoud was just as bad. In ways, there is NO WAY one could come to this conclusion unless you had my experiences. No matter what way you look at it...this is a terrible thing to happen for Lebanon's peace and security and in general. I PRAY to GOD this will not get violent. It would completely destroy my heart.

We have this sort of saying..."In the Arab world when you close one hole, it opens up in a different place."

Lets hope things turn out ok. Wow...I don't believe this. I feel like the whole world is playing a terrible joke on me.



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